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Phil Tanny
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Posted: Sun Jul 18, 2004 4:04 pm
Post subject: Is SEO Dying?
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Sorry for the flamboyant title, practising my headlines. 
Mr. Party Pooper is contemplating this simple math equation in the comfort of his cave of darkness. Please shed some light if you can.
There are a limited number of useful spots in the Google search results listings for any term. Say maybe, the top 20 top spots for each term?
There are a limited number of terms. Sure, there are many many terms, and new ones will get added as new topics arise. But basically, the keyword universe is relatively stable. It's never going to grow dramatically.
There are an ever growing number of people, with ever growing skill, competing for the top spots for each term. Each of these people, by which I mean us, are creating new sites as fast as we can.
So, right now maybe there are 13 optimized sites for some term. A year from now that will be 113. 3 years from now 613.
So, in short, there is a limited supply of productive spots on Google, and new sites coming online everyday to compete for those spots. Limited supply, unlimited demand.
There will always be somebody who makes it in to the top ten.
But the winners will increasingly dimish, as a percentage of the total market.
And the loser percentage will continue to grow. I'm defining a loser here as someone who trys to optimize for a good listing, but doesn't get much or any traffic from that effort.
Won't it at some point become sort of a buying a lottery ticket operation? Sure, you might win, but the odds will get so long it's won't be sensible to invest much if any money in your chances.
All of the above could be used as an argument for doing SEO like crazy for now to grasp the opportunity while it exists. That's a good point.
The only problem I see with that is that it diverts resources away from preparing for what would seem to be an inevitable future when free search engine traffic will no longer be a workable business model.
Feel free to deflate all of the above, that's why I posted it.
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Jewel
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Posted: Sun Jul 18, 2004 6:27 pm
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Hi, Phil,
If your forecast is true, then all the more reason not to put all our eggs in the search engine basket! 
SEO is just one part of the strategy; it's also essential to get traffic coming into your site(s) from as many non-search engine sources as possible to Google-proof yourself.  Somebody - Michael Fortin? - said it's better to be small but everywhere, than to be big but all in one place.
And becoming king / queen of your niche with tons of great content helps too.
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AllanGardyne
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Posted: Sun Jul 18, 2004 11:56 pm
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Excellent points, Phil. I think in five years or so we'll look back and marvel at how easy it was to get pages ranked well in search engines.
One way to react to the challenge of ever-increasing competition is to decide to build really high-quality sites, because that's what the search engines of the future will be trying their best to present to their users.
You can look harder to obscure niches where there isn't much competition.
You can also use Wordtracker to identify less competitive, low traffic phrases and build pages for them. However, I suspect we'll soon see massive competition from China and India and other countries where wages are low.
Another way is to use some of the dozens or hundreds of other ways there are to get traffic to your site, instead of concentrating solely on search engines.
I believe they'll always be room for innovative people who are fast on their feet.
With that mind, Wally and I have set up a new section of the forum called "Web Site Promotion". In that section, from time to time - perhaps about once a week - I'll start a new discussion on traffic-generating tactics many affiliates aren't using.
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ekalski
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Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2004 12:22 am
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Perhaps one key will be to build a site worthy of links from other sites. I get traffic from other sites I exchange links with. Of course the problem with that is that at some point we will all have so many links on our link's page(s) that it won't generate that much traffic. Just like people don't go through page after page of SE result's pages, they won't go through page after page of links from one site to another.
Ed
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Tgorman
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Currently Fort Irwin, California
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Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2004 2:19 am
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Phil,
One technique that I use along with SEO is the PPCs. I built a site to compete with the many loan sites already out there. The reason I selected that topic was of the lucrative payout potential. I have found a way to drive traffic to my site for around 10 cents a click while everyone else is paying upwards of $4-$8 per click. I currently have over 275 keywords doing this for me. The bottom line is I spend around $5 a day on PPC ads which generate between $50-$80 a day of income for me. In less then 6 months I already earn over $1200 a month just from my loan site. My next project is a debt relief site. using my same technique I believe I can have that site making between $2000-$3000 in less then 6 months. Instead of a niche topic I choose a niche advertising method.
With that said none of it would have been possible without using SBI and writing alot of content.
Thanks,
Tim
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Sean Burns
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Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:06 am
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Hi Phil
Interesting post. Here are some of my thoughts.
Firstly, as Allan and Ed said, if you create a site that will naturally get links, you are already ahead of the game and future competitors won't matter too much.
This can be seen by looking at highly competitive keywords. Search for Travel or something like that and you will not see any new sites. All are well established sites that people naturally link to.
Now, we are in a position to become those sites of the future and block any competitors. My soccer site has over 30 000 links pointing to it and gets thousands of visitors per day from the SEs. There are already tens of thousands of competitors but it doesn't matter - it will take years for them to be able to beat me (or the other well ranked sites) and this assumes that my site stagnates (which it won't). Anyone setting up a site today can do the same for their niche and, as I said, block future competitors.
Another point is that a free economy (which the internet is) is essentially self regulating. There won't be 613 competing sites in a niche that currently has only 13 because they won't all make money. The market will determine how many sites there really are competing with each other. For example, I have four "major chain" supermarkets in my area (offline). There was five but one closed down. Now, everyone eats food so why did one go out of business? Because the market couldn't support five. My internet marketing site makes me money whilst lots don't. Why? Because the market can't support them all. So, they close down (or, just get ignored by the owners).
What we have to do is make sure that our sites aren't the ones that the market "rejects". Things will definitely becomes more competitive but, starting today, anyone can protect their sites from the competition.
Cheers
Sean Burns |
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bas
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Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:53 pm
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In the search engines of the future not just a typed in keyword will be used to provide a search, also personal collected data stored away somewhere. So instead of just 'travel', your entire history of travelling, your personal interests, etc will be factored in by the systems. So, in some respects more "spots" will open. Don't ask me how to pin point them  So, yes that probably will be a lottery ticket.
The next generation Windows (longhorn) will have a great step towards this kind of search. As the search is directly from the desktop, it can have the ability to include this kind of info (think about your e-mail, personal documents, bookings you made in the past, etc). But also stuuf stored on someone else's harddrive, as peer-to-peer search (think Kazaa) will also be a major part I guess.
BTW release of longhorn is scheduled 2006, so its not that far away.
Just my 2 euro cents.
Cheers
Bas
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Larry Chamberlain
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Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2004 7:09 pm
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Hi Sean,
| Quote: | | Another point is that a free economy (which the internet is) is essentially self regulating. There won't be 613 competing sites in a niche that currently has only 13 because they won't all make money. The market will determine how many sites there really are competing with each other. For example, I have four "major chain" supermarkets in my area (offline). There was five but one closed down. Now, everyone eats food so why did one go out of business? Because the market couldn't support five. My internet marketing site makes me money whilst lots don't. Why? Because the market can't support them all. So, they close down (or, just get ignored by the owners). |
Yep, everyone eats food, but does everyone eat the same food? What I'm getting at is could it be that supermarket went belly up because it was doing exactly the same as the other four?
I know even less about food retailing than I do about web marketing, but if all the "major chain" supermarkets went for the cheap as possible market and the other one went for quality over price, wouldn't it stand more of a chance?
I haven't got a clue how to translate this to the web, except that if there is heavy competition in a niche and you see a way to do things different, couldn't that give you a shot? (says me who probably does things exactly like everyone else )
All the best,
Larry Chamberlain.
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Phil Tanny
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Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2004 11:20 pm
Post subject:
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Great posts guys, thanks for adding your perspectives.
What a pleasure it is to toss this around with such an
informed and thoughtful group.
We seem to be in general agreement that the free
traffic from search engines era is a moment in time
that will pass for most. The leading suggestion on how
we might respond to this seems to be that we focus on
creating quality sites, which should in theory rise to
the top of whatever new paradigms emerge.
If we wish to keep following this trail we are
therefore led farther from a discussion of technical
SEO tactics, towards a wider discussion of the computer
on the other side of the keyboard, our human minds.
I suspect the human mind is where we should be focusing
our crystal ball explorations because it's the central
device on the Net, we have thousands of years of data
on it, and it's basic functioning will either not
change, or change at a much slower rate than all the
other devices it is connected to.
So, what is a quality site? Or to put it more
precisely, as we go forward what kind of site will give
people the kind of experience that inspires them to
say, voluntarily link to that site? How will Net users
perceive quality in upcoming years?
Regrettably, the experience of quality is not a fixed
market either.
During the 1950's TV programming was greatly inferior
in quality and quanity in comparison to today's 100
channel 24/7 TV universe. But viewers actually
enjoyed it more than they do today.
The 50's viewers mind's did an A/B comparison to the
pre-TV era they had just experienced, and the gap
between A and B was large enough to inspire a quite
stimulating experience.
These days the typical TV watcher can easily fall
asleep in the lazy boy while half naked women fly
helicopters in to exploding asteroids in full surround
sound.
In the 1990's we experienced the Net much the same way
users experienced TV back in the 50's when I was a kid.
And now we are moving on to the next stage on the Net.
Our minds seek stimulation. Each incidence of
stimulation tends to dull our input receptors.
Stimulation is to the mind what drugs are to the body.
The more you take the more you need. If we wanted to be
write a snappy headline we might call this the "porn
effect".
Net publishers are/will respond to this phenomena by
trying to be good competitors and giving their users more
and more stimulation. The Net will go multimedia for
instance. And the more we give our users, the less they
will appreciate it. It's not a moral issue, just the
normal nature of the human mind at work.
So when we talk about creating quality web sites for
the future, this is another basic math equation to keep
in mind, in my view.
We not only face more and more competition, we're
dealing with an audience who is ever more jaded by our
media saturated culture.
Which is why, um, nature video sites will eventually
totally dominate the Internet.
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smattering
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Salt Lake City, Utah USA
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Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2004 4:11 am
Post subject: short attention span... site too slow
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Flash, multimedia, interactive sites, avatars, and who knows what else, all seem to say they are the wave of the future. We need to simultaneously entertain and inform. But our page loads slower than a sloth. The web is about speed, faster connections, faster downloads, and faster uploads.
The average user has the attention span of a gnat. Yet we speak not just of content, but of deep content. In affiliate marketing, it is all about pulling them through to the offer. But the offer gathers cobwebs as no one hangs around long enough to see it.
On top of all this, our concern centers on SEO. How do we keep the current patient alive and kicking , all the while looking for the next. Then keeping the new one functioning, may require abilities or strategies we do not now, and may never, possess.
I LOVE DOING THIS!
We must be the best multi-taskers alive or the biggest lunatics, thinking we can pull it all together. Thank heavens we have each other to lean on...
Hey where did everybody go?
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Phil Tanny
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Posted: Thu Jul 22, 2004 2:57 pm
Post subject: Re: short attention span... site too slow
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Do we generally agree with the following?
1) free traffic from search engines techniques will at some point be more or less useless (as they already are for the most profitable search terms)
2) The users of tomorrow will be less emotionally engaged with Internet content (as they already are in comparison to a few years ago).
If we accept those premises (we may not), what does that mean for the future of the free content, free traffic, preselling business models such as SBI, Martell etc.
As example, will the direct marketing model prevail? Will Internet business web sites evolve towards pure sales letters that will present the user with a clear question:
"Reader, you either wish to buy this product at this moment in time, or you don't. Buy now, or begone."
Will the Walmart model (ie. Amazon) eventually crush all the little mom and pop stores, as is happening offline? Will users gravitate towards big sellers who can offer the widest inventory, best prices and a familiar shopping interface?
Will those who have mastered the art of buying advertising be the big winners?
If all your search engine traffic were to disapear tomorrow, what are the top 3 strategies you would use to replace that traffic?
If we get to the point where there are 10 times as many sites online as there are now, will offering free content still be a sufficient hook? Or will we need to put something better on the table? Like what?
Is it worthwhile to look ahead like this? Or should we stay focused on the models that work now, and figure out the future when it gets here?
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bas
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Posted: Thu Jul 22, 2004 4:23 pm
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Though one...  but you cannot hide from the future, so I think
it is better to do what works now, educated yourself for the future, test things out, and when the future comes, you can face it 
Providing top free content will always be a good traffic source. What ever
will happen, free good quality will always be something people look for.
However, what happens when people get your info... how will the information be displayed? Affiliate links filtered out? (like Norton firewall).
Any way, I expect that "tricks" will less and less work. Just plain top quality content will be the only salvation. And niches will become more narrow. Smarter search algorithms will factor in more stuff, creating more possible outcomes, more possible niches. So, more people online, more people offering stuff, but luckily more and more narrowed niches.
(not travel japan, but travel japan for people that already have been there, order suchi 3x a week and have a bankaccount with over X dollars; just one over exagerated example).
As to be expected, people following the quality content mantra will be ok.
Cheers
Bas
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bas
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Posted: Thu Jul 22, 2004 4:26 pm
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Hmmm, just to add... people with pure shopping sites will have problems. Future version of windows has a built in product search 
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bas
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Posted: Thu Jul 22, 2004 5:45 pm
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Sorry, your question is just too stimulating to give such a lame answer
as above, I'll try better 
First, free traffic will something you can base your business on in the
future. However, you will not be able to influence rankings as you are
now. So, by current definitions SEO is dying.
You can influence however by having top content. It will be essential
to be an expert is some field. Being an expert is not enough, you also need to know your audience (visiitors/customers). That's currently the long term
strategy I'm following as it is easy to do it now, no one knows when it will become more difficult (I now have the traffic  ).
Know your audience by:
- looking at search engine keywords
- how long stay they on a certain page
- how many pages do they read
- if you have a search function on your site: what keywords are
they using?
- stimulate interaction with you (live chat, drop a mail, etc).
- install some adsense tracker to see at what adds people click on what page (that was what they are looking for and didn't find at your site!)
- forum like this (I dont use it, as it is too much work)
I found out the following:
I have a site about project management. It is a long tutorial, it is
alsmost a discussion with me at the bar My best visitors enjoy
that (newbies in the field). However, the majority wants quick, short
answers to HOW DO I...., HOW CAN I... etc. or want to have templates,
checklist, and other ready made stuff, examples of plans, etc.
As you might guess, I don't have that yet!!! 
That's my preparation for the future. Can Amazon beat me at this? Yes, if they have a master in business informatics writing free articles... And if they do... I must change my angle, niche a bit.
Oh, and of course i have to monetize on the traffic too. And my bet is that
having a good name, is essential when giving an endorsement for a service or product, like Allan is doing.
Oops, sorry for the long stuff. Eager to see all other inputs....
Cheers
Bas
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AllanGardyne
Site Admin
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Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2004 2:03 am
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Phil, What wonderful questions! Anyone who plans to be on the Internet in five years time needs to be thinking about these things.
But, but but... you asked far too many questions all at once! Imagine if you'd been sitting in your living room talking with a group of friends and you'd fired this stream of questions at them. Where would the conversation go next?
So if some aspects of these challenges aren't discussed well, feel free to ask them again some time.
Re free search engine traffic, while there are huge challenges there are also absolutely fantastic opportunities. There are going to be some HUGE winners. In any industry at all, it's usual for there to be two companies, such as Coca-Cola and Pepsi, and often there's a large gap to whoever is in third place.
Your challenge is to build a site that is "top of mind" in your niche.
While I'm a bit scared of large companies that have lots of money, I'm not too scared. Large companies are often slow moving and make lots of mistakes.
I remember several years ago one of my competitors gained $4 million in funding. I thought, "Wow! In a few months that site will be No.1 in my industry." To cut a long story short, it's not, and in fact I haven't even seen it mentioned anywhere for ages.
Little guys who have their own voice are doing much better than that company appears to be doing.
Wonderful things can happen to little guys. For example, it's possible for your site to get a free mention in LED Digest, be named a USA Today "hot site", or be mentioned in magazine and newsletter articles.
| Quote: | | Will those who have mastered the art of buying advertising be the big winners? |
If they've mastered the art of buying advertising AND have conversion rates to make their traffic profitable, yes, they'll be huge winners.
However, one major challenge for such advertisers is that there is ever-increasing competition and ever-increasing costs for positions on AdWords and Overture, the two most effective places to advertise. I'd hate to be pinning all my hopes on such a strategy.
| Quote: | | If all your search engine traffic were to disapear tomorrow, what are the top 3 strategies you would use to replace that traffic? |
Excellent question. The best place to ask it is in the brand new "Web Site Promotion" section of this forum.
Wally and I started that section because I think too many affiliates are concentrating only on free search engine traffic and ignoring dozens of other good ways to get traffic.
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