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Ken Evoy · Guest

What's the single most important factor that will ultimately
spell the success or failure of Google AdSense?

Here it is...

At the end of the day, advertisers MUST get a positive ROI
for AdSense to continue.

Until Google, Search Engines have never really understood
WHO their REAL "customer" was, not even WHAT their real
product was.

The product is "search"? Nope.

The product is the zillions of folks who PERFORM search.
Yes, those folks have to receive tight, relevant search
results, I agree, to keep coming back -- but that's all part
of "THE PRODUCT." After all, WHAT is being SOLD?

To answer that, follow the money flow.

A "REAL customer" is the entity who pays the bills... the
advertiser. Search engines originally, way-way-back-when,
gave away the most amazing product in the history of the
world... free, warm, targeted prospective customers.

Then they switched to banners, a doomed model even when CTRs
in the first year were up at 8-10%. Then they REALLY
switched -- STICK IT TO THE ADVERTISERS -- "take their money
and give them back as little as possible -- the heck with
their ROI." If you follow the logic of many of today's
PPC/advertising programs, you'll see that advertisers' best
interests are not taken into consideration -- most engines
do not try to OVERdeliver for THEIR customers.

Until they do, they'll flounder.

I believe, and it's only a guess, that Google is smarter
than that. In any event, it will be a great test of who they
are, and how they think ("geek-driven" or "customer-driven"?).

(Yesterday's fiasco where Google tried to pull visitors to
AdSense sites back to do another "related Google search" is
actually a great example of how smart they are. A big
company does not make a sudden decision. They were ready to
pull the plug on Related Search in AdSense... and as soon as
the you-know-what hit the fan, they did. Impressive. But it
shows what they think of their AdSense partners. Sad

)

Here's the bottom line...

A really great company WANTS THEIR CUSTOMERS TO MAKE A
PROFIT OFF THEM (i.e., get more value out a product than the
dollars to acquire it). Google's REAL customer is its
advertiser, not the surfer. "Free search results" merely
comprise the "editorial"... the equivalent of the news in a
newspaper -- the ads pay the freight. And that, of course,
is far more true for search engines than newspapers.

So it's very simple. If Google's advertisers do not make a
profit off of Google, the program will die. It's one of the
reasons why, on adsense.sitesell.com, we stress "Keep it
honest" as one of the nine strategies for maximizing returns
from AdSense...

http://adsense.sitesell.com/adsense7.html

Hopefully, Google "gets it." Because, unlike the newspaper,
Net advertisers can now measure their ROI precisely (even
though you can't get a detailed breakdown yet, you DO know
your bottom line -- and that's enough information to vote
with your wallet if returns from AdSense ever drop).

Google can measure collective data equally precisely. BUT
they can't know their advertiser's ROI -- each advertiser
could even have a different definition of ROI... per-lead,
per-sale, per-affiliate-signup, per-subscriber, etc... and
depending on profit margins and industry, have a different
"required ROI" to continue their programs.

On my daughter's anguilla-beaches.com site, we have already
seen discount airfare advertisers drop AdSense -- obviously,
the ROI was not there (not my daughter's fault -- this must
be a wide experience). Google CAN measure dropout rate.

And if Google sees that this is a trend, they'll have to act
fast. HOW they act will tell us a lot about this company,
and whether AdSense succeeds. AdSense is the first really
clever, Net-using model by an engine since GoTo invented the
Pay-Per-Click bidding model.

If you think about it -- AdSense is ingenious. Google
actually gets to monetize their editorial content... and
stay within government regulations. What do I mean? If
you search for the term "anguilla beaches" at Google, you'll
find my 14 year old daughter's site, anguilla-beaches.com,
at or near the top (she has one of the most highly
trafficked sites about Anguilla, using SBI!). And what do
you see when you get there?

A Google ad!

Brilliant -- they have monetized their "editorial content."

BUT... if they let AdSense get out of control, if they don't
work night and day to tighten every aspect of this
technology so that the ads are contextual, appear only on
solid sites, etc., etc., advertisers won't make a profit.

Let's hope Google is watching and reacting, so that AdSense
OVERdelievers to its customers... the advertisers.

It will be interesting to watch. What do YOU think?

All the best,
Ken Evoy
President, SiteSell.com

Dan · Guest

Greetings one and all,

Allan, I hope you feel better soon. As you requested in your newsletter, this is my contribution to your excellent message board. I hope there are some comments others may find useful.

Let me start by saying that I could not agree more with Ken's assessment that the survival of Adsense depends upon the success of those footing the bill: the advertisers.

With the Advertisers' ROI (however they define it) easy to measure, there will be a mass exodus out of the Google Adwords program if the anecdotal evidence of "clicks with no sales" continues.

At the same time, I am not a pessimist about the future of the program. As Ken points out, this IS an ingenious program. Indeed, it is so ingenious that I fully expect the model to be duplicated by other search engines at some point (Yahoo/Overture?).

In short, the stakes are too high to let this thing fail. This is the program that will put Google's growth in hyperdrive, and they MUST get it to work for their advertisers.

Rather than just scraping the program if it doesn't work, therefore, I expect Google will REFINE REFINE and REFINE some more. Although I know nothing about the intricacies of their technology, I would imagine Google will create and implement features that enable advertisers to preclude their ads from being served on sites that they find unappealing or do not generate results for them.

For example, maybe when an advertiser puts up in ad, they will be able to see a list of all the sites that their ad was "relevant" enough to appear on. Then, advertisers can take a look and block specific sites out, just like we Adsense sites can block certain competitors should we choose.

Anyway, all of this leads me in a different direction....

As an SBI user myself, I have witnessed first hand the power of the Adsense program. One of my sites www.nutritional-supplement-info.com (profiled in some of the SBI newsletters covering Adsense) Wink

is doing very well with it.

And, as Allan points out, the door is wide open for other SBI sites to be created with the purpose of promoting Adsense. And, in fact, I am contemplating getting myself a third SBI site to do just that. Wink

From here, I want to comment on some things I think SBI owners or would-be owners should consider.

First, I've read a few places now that the Adsense program makes affiliate marketing a lot easier because it takes away the need to PRESELL, and just build good content. This is true (in the short term), but I also think it presents a trap to be avoided.

In my opinion, even if you are NOT promoting any affiliate programs with an SBI site built for Adsense, you SHOULD still do your best to PRESELL.

Why?

Because by doing so, you will be increasing the likelihood of generating a sale (or whatever) for the advertiser(s) that appear on your site.

Let's just take a quick example off the top of my head. Let's say you're creating a page on, oh, natural treatments for menopause. Let's assume you're familiar with the undue risks of HRT, and you've had personal success using a natural alternative like Black Cohosh, or some other herbal remedy. Well, on such a page, I would mention that fact prominently. In essence, you would be PRESELLING Black Cohosh, even though you may not be representing any particular merchant.

Of course, only presell in this fashion if you actually believe in what you are preselling, but the point is that you should look for ways to do this.

That way, if Google does (as I'm certain they will) tighten up the Adsense program by eliminating sites that don't perform for their advertisers, yours won't have a high probability of getting cut out.

In short, PRESELLING is still key.

Having covered that, I'd like to briefly touch on a little tip of sorts that may help other people who are considering getting SBI to promote Adsense in some fashion.

At first, I thought that the best way to go would be to build a site that had potential "back up" affiliate programs so that, should the worst happen--Adsense dies--your site does not go to waste, and you can merely switch the ads with specific product endorsements.

However, as I was snooping around for a profitable niche to target, something dawned on me that should have been obvious but wasn't at first. And that is: when there are existing affiliate programs for a specific industry, product, etc., there is bound to be more competition because there will be webmasters and entrepreneurs who are exploiting the opportunity to represent those merchants.

In SBI terms, this will generally equate to a higher SUPPLY when you're research keyterms for such industries.

And, of course, the inverse is true as well: if there are no (or little) affiliate programs for an industry, generally speaking, the supply, i.e, competition, will be less fierce.

Here's where it gets really interesting: what I found was that sometimes, these industries where I could not locate any affiliate programs, there still existed 1) high demand from SE visitors for a wide range of related keyterms and 2) High payouts from Adsense advertisers of that industry.

In other words, a PERFECT opportunity to swoop in and create an SBI content site to exploit that high cost-per-click, high search demand, low supply industry.

The drawback, however, is that should Google Adsense die, your site may very well go down with it, as you'd then be hard pressed to find a way to generate revenue.

Anyway, just some thoughts...some of the best opportunities will truly lie where there are no discernible affiliate programs so don't just hunt thru the affiliate directories for ideas!

Regards,
Dan

affiliateguide · **Joined**: 09 Aug 2003 **Posts**: 7

It seems to me that Adsense has rapidly increased the supply of text ads. Usually when there is a rapid growth in supply, standard economic theory suggests that prices will fall.

Has anyone noticed a fall in PPC prices? I cant see how prices can be maintained unless there has been an equel increase in advertisers demand.

I suspect that rates will fall further until a balance is reached and it becomes economic for advertisers to achieve the return on investment they need to survive.

Cheers,
Graeme Eastman
_________________
http://www.AffiliateGuide.com

garyknuckles · Guest

Allan we have you and your family in our prayers, get well soon!

I have yet to notice a drop in the PPC prices, at least for the terms I'm bidding on, which range from key words about IT certification and training, hackers and viruses, and yes some internet marketing terms.

They seem to be staying at an even level right now.

Smile

Gary Knuckles
http://www.CrazyWebGuy.com
"Current Radio Show:"
"Alex Mandossian spills all on time management"

merch2go · **Joined**: 11 Aug 2003 **Posts**: 2

A.G. ,

First: I pray wellness. I see you well.

Wanted you to know that Ken's commentary about you in his latest ezine was right on - it's your enthusiasm, and your reports on Rupert's progress that got me off the dime. I just didn't have the experience or where-with-all to be able to evaluate SBI confidently.

Thanks to you I realized that "if Rupert can do it - so can I." What a gift that was - a place to start!

Thanks to your updates, I am reminded to keep plugging away regardless of how long it takes.

As regards the comments so far on Adsense - I find it all very interesting that something new and usefull has surfaced at this late date. The longer Adsense continues - the more competitive creating a content-rich site will become.

Will the most effective writers become the owners/creators of highly focused and valuable content/product portals?

Would this mean that Rupert could end up being the "Siskel & Roper" of "Cheap Computers?"

I can see it now: cheap computer manufacturers live or die on whether they garner the coveted "Rupert's Two Thumbs Up!" Laughing

It could happen!

Rupert · **Joined**: 20 Jul 2003 **Posts**: 38

"Rupert's Two Thumbs Up!"

No sorry it will be one thumb or none. My left hand is required to hold my head up above the keyboard.

I agree with Ken that the advertisers must make a profit for it to work but there has to be balance.

With the kinds of normal affiliate programs I promoted (where commissions are less than equal to the value of the product) I was getting less than 7 cents a click. With Adsense the earnings per click are way higher.

I think Adsense will work because web masters are getting fairer value for their clicks. In my experience advertisers have had things way too easy with affiliate programs and it is time hard working web masters (apparently they do exist) were rewarded for their efforts creating entertaining and informative web sites.

Ultimately there is a real market value for traffic and it may take a few months to reach but I believe it is certainly above the 7 cents my traffic was worth.

As long as it's above that Adsense will stay on my sites.

johndilbeck · Posted: Mon Aug 11, 2003 5:04 am Post subject:

First, I want to express my hope that Allan gets not just well, but STRONG and HEALTHY very quickly!

Allan introduced me to affiliate programs a couple of years ago. He also introduced me to SiteSell and Ken Evoy.

Soon, after joining the 5 Pillar Club, Ken became my mentor and I've learned more than I ever expected from him. Using his techniques, I've built my test site at JohnDilbeck.com into a top 2% site according to Alexa and it's still rising higher, even though it has no discernible topic other than what interests me.

I've bought several of the Make Your ____ Sell! books and I've learned a great deal from each of them. I've been interested in SBI for over a year, but had no great impetus to get an account since I'm comfortable with traditional webhosting and creating interactive sites such as this one. (If SBI ever gets a discussion forum module, that would rock!)

Now, I find myself following the legendary Rupert. Rupert proved to me, and probably many others, that SBI is the way to build a site that sells, and I'm happy to find myself in the company of such distinguished webmasters.

I jumped on the Adsense bandwagon a couple of days after hearing about it from Ken and I've implemented it on most of the pages of three sites. While I'm not getting rich from it, I am receiving steady income that wasn't available two weeks ago.

I, too, am concerned that the advertisers on Google see an increase in sales which would encourage them to place more ads so we can all benefit.

I'm not sure which way the revenue curve will swing for all of us, but it's obvious to me that Ken is right when he says that our visitors must click on the ads and buy something for the program to continue to make sense for the advertisers.

Last week, I bought an SBI account and I just finished reading the great book (601 pages!!) and I've started brainstorming a new theme for the site. One of my major problems is that I'm interested in too many topics and I find it difficult to narrow my focus to one theme and build around it. Rupert has proven that it works, and the results page showing all the top 1% and 2% sites using SBI prove that the system builds traffic.

So, I'm going to do my very best to put into practice what I've learned over the last couple of years from each of you and see if I can join the 1% rank and start earning a full-time income on the web.

I want to thank each of you who has helped me get to where I am, and I'm hoping to be able to pass some of what I've learned to others who are following this path.

Between affiliate programs and Adsense, I think I can build a site that will be profitable.

Thanks to all of you!

All the best,

JD
_________________
John L. Dilbeck
I succeed by helping you succeed

http://JohnDilbeck.com
http://DilbeckMarketing.com

Good Guy · Guest

Allan we are praying for you! I pray that you feel well and strong this day!

Thank you for all of your contributions!

Bill Harbison

lassitermarketing · Posted: Tue Aug 12, 2003 9:21 pm Post subject: Some observations

First, Get Well Soon, Allan!

I wholeheartedly agree with Ken's observation. I love the fact that content is king because I really stink at traffic building! I have been an active webmaster struggling with traffic building for years. Lately I have been very discouraged due to the lack of revenue generated from my site(s).

Two things have happened in the last month to make me very happy.

One-AdSense.

I added AdSense to an informational site I have about celiac disease, an affliction that I have, and immediately doubled my affiliate income. My CPM is $16 and I am thrilled. It makes me feel better about taking the time to update the site, add new content and do my ezine. Like Ken says--you have to factor in a cost for your time.

Here's a tip:

I observed that my CTR increased (doubled!) when I removed a pop up on my home page. This was a lucky break-I only removed it because my autoresponder was having technical difficulties. Laughing

The second thing that has influenced me to target my efforts is Rupert's case studies. How much do you love Rupert?! Razz

I have to say that I avoided SBI! for years because I thought that I was an experienced webmaster and didn't need it. I purchased a copy this past weekend and am working through my 10 day planning stage. I love the tools!!

So, I'm psyched to become a webmaster in the top 1%. AND I will keep using AdSense for as long as their advertisers will have me

Thanks for all the guidance, guys. I truly appreciate it!
_________________
Susan Lassiter-Lyons
------------------------------------------------
Lassiter Marketing Group LLC
http://www.lassitermarketing.com

Wayne Porter · Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2003 4:49 am Post subject:

Ken,

I do believe that you are asking the right question. ROI is important for tightening things up, but not the true guiding metric for large advertisers, even for some of the middle-tier players. I know many people (myself included) who are happy to run keyword-based campaigns at a slight loss if they are getting good quality acquistion activity.

The most important metric they are using would be LTV- Life Time Customer Value. Still the ROI through Adwords bears watching.

Personally I think Google is trying to put everything into one pricing system. This doesn't work when I value a click from the Google search engine much more then I value a click from Joe Smith's blog. They should be priced accordingly.

regards,
Wayne
_________________
Wayne Porter
Senior Editor, Revenews
Site: http://www.revenews.com
Blog: http://www.revenews.com/wayneporter/

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